Thursday, December 27, 2007

Giuliani The Vampire

Rudy Giuliani isn't done yet. He may down, but if he can keep the money flowing until January 29, when Florida holds its primary, Rudy's late state strategy may still work.

David Saltonstall reports Rudy can afford to lose some ground because of the size leads in large, later-voting states with significant delegate counts:

There are 29 states that hold primaries or caucuses between now and Feb. 5, which combined offer a total 1,313 delegates - or 122 more than a Republican needs to win the nomination.

In the 24 states that have conducted public polling, Giuliani remains ahead in 13 - many of them big, winner-take-all states such as New York, New Jersey and Missouri.

Romney and Huckabee, by contrast, are front-runners in only four states each. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson leads in two, and Arizona Sen. John McCain can claim top billing only in West Virginia, polls show.

The bottom line? If Giuliani wins every state where the most recent polls showed him still ahead, he'll end next month with some 758 delegates.

Using the same standard, Huckabee will end the month with only 170 delegates and Romney with 112, while McCain and Thompson will trail with fewer than 100 each.
On the other hand, no one can predict what will happen following the media frenzy that is sure to follow victories Huckabee, McCain Romney may achieve in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan.

Chris Matthews discusses Giuliani's chances with Charlie Cook in the following video and says that it might be like a vampire awakening.

It is just as likely that the bottom could completely fall out of Giuliani's campaign if Romney wins a come from behind victory over Huckabee in Iowa and then goes on to defeat McCain in New Hampshire.

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