Fred's Powerful Pitch

Fred makes his pitch as to why he's the best candidate for the presidency.

Seventeen minutes may sound long, but it's not too much time to invest in selecting a president. Watch it:



Fred's pitch is very powerful. I wish Fred gave a speech like this when he addressed the Lincoln Club of Orange County's annual dinner in May.

Hillary's Californicators Campaign In Iowa

Hillary's favorite Californicators, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, are in Iowa along with Hillary's adulterer in chief, former president Bill Clinton.

Newsom and Villaraigosa are both national co-chairs of Hillary's campaign. Both Californicators are sorry examples of family values.

Villaraigosa's adulterous affair with Telemundo reporter Mirthala Salinas resulted in the break up of Villaraigosa's marriage and with Salinas leaving Telemundo, where she was a rising star.

Newsom is the poster for San Francisco values. He betrayed his campaign manager Alex Tourk, who was also one of Newsom's best friends, by sleeping with Tourk’s wife. Newsom is best known nationally for openly defying California state law in 2004 by directing clerks at City Hall to sanction same-sex unions. According to the Chronicle, Newsom's flaunting of the law made him a pariah within the Democratic Party. Some observers credit President Bush's reelection and the passage of constitutional amendments banning gay marriage in 11 states that same year on a backlash triggered by Newsom's lawlessness.

Why is it that Hillary continues to associate herself with political adulterers? Republican strategists couldn't be happier about Hillary's willingness to accept support from the Californicators. As far as the GOP is concerned, the more face time the pro-gay-marriage, pro-sanctuary-city, pro-gun-control mayor of the most leftist, liberal city in America spends with Hillary, the better. The Republican National Committee recently previewed what may become a general election theme in a press release titled "Hillary's San Francisco Treat." The release highlights Newsom's plan to issue identification cards to illegal aliens, saying Newsom's plan picks up where New York Governor Eliot Spitzer's failed attempt to issue drivers licenses to illiegals left off. Hillary said Spitzer's plan made "a lot of sense," But that was before she denied she said that it made sense:



Hillary's campaign continues to embrace the Californicators. Continuing to rely on Newsom, who stands for things Hillary says she opposes, such as same-sex marriage, may hurt Hillary in general election. But at least she would carry San Francisco.

Huckabust, Edwards Surge

The first Iowa poll after Christmas campaign break finds the Huckabee implosion has begun in the Republican contest with Romney regaining the lead and a dead-heat among the three leading Democratic candidates>:

“On the Democratic side, the race is about as close as it can get, but keep an eye on Edwards,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. “Edwards has really moved up since our last poll. Obama and Clinton have each slipped a little bit.”

[. . .]

While the survey shows a virtual statistical tie, it also shows Edwards with some momentum heading into the final days. He's gained 3 percentage points since McClatchy-MSNBC polled Iowa before the holidays, while Clinton lost 4 points and Obama lost 3 points.

Also gaining were Richardson and Biden, each picking up 3 points.

The second tier is particularly important in Iowa’s Democratic caucuses, where a candidate can win delegates only if they register at least 15 percent support in each town hall-like precinct meeting. Voters whose candidates don’t make that threshold can support someone else.

As of now, that appears to help Edwards.

In the Republican contest, Huckabee’s support dropped 8 percent in the last three weeks. While Huckabee's support fell, Romney regained 7 percent:

Iowa Republicans gave him their highest favorable rating, and he ranked first among GOP voters looking for experience, leadership and the ability to win in November. He also led among voters who ranked immigration, taxes or terrorism their top concerns.

A key gain: He now has the support of 27 percent of the state’s evangelical Christian Republicans, up sharply from 8 percent several weeks ago. Concerns about his Mormon faith appear to have ebbed.

Don't bet the farm on these poll numbers. Polling for the Iowa caucuses isn't easy and the voters remain fickle. One in three Iowa Republicans and one in five Iowa Democrats say they might still change their preference.

Dodd Says It's All About Experience

Chris Dodd says Hillary is taking credit for her husband Bill Clinton's achievements while he was president as she campaigns on experience:

"I'm far more experienced," Dodd said, adding that his wife Jackie "wouldn't take credit for the Family Medical Leave Act" that Dodd authored.

In the following video, Dodd says Hillary's experience as first lady is similar to that of Laura Bush:



I couldn't agree more with Dodd's analysis of Hillary's experience. As I have said before, Hillary is uniquely inexperienced to be president.

Dodd also says the Bhutto assassination has caused voters to focus on foreign policy, which Dodd says could strengthen his campaign in the final few days before the Iowa caucuses:

"What's been brought home to us, in very stark ways in the last 48 hours, is the importance of proven experience and ability in dealing with domestic and foreign policy issues," he said. "Caucusgoers had a sobering experience with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and they're now going to think twice about maybe earlier choices, or they will solidify their decision to go with a lesser-known candidate but a more experienced one."

Dodd may be right that the Bhutto assassination will remind the voters that we are still in a war against extremists. That is not going to help Dodd's campaign. Dodd has consistently polled poorly in Iowa. I expect Dodd to withdraw from the race shortly after the New Hampshire primary.

Democrats Hurt Troop Morale

Bill Gertz reports Democratic attacks on the war undermined troop morale:

Cpl. Goldich, who returned from Anbar province in November after about 300 combat patrols, stated in a candid account that negative comments by Democrats had "a dramatic effect on morale, especially on troops who are otherwise indifferent and disdainful of politics in general."

"I cannot tell you how many times I have overheard Marines and soldiers talking about various inconsiderate comments made from the likes of [Sen.] John Kerry [Massachusetts Democrat], [Rep. John P.] Murtha [Pennsylvania Democrat], [Senate Majority Leader Harry] Reid [Nevada Democrat], and [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi [California Democrat] about how we cannot win, how we should be brought home, etc.," he said.

[. . .]

There is a widespread perception amongst the Marines I know, even those uninterested in politics, that the Democratic Party does not want us to win in Iraq for whatever reason. This is true even amongst Democrats who still maintain the party viewpoint on almost every other issue but the war. Morale is always a tricky issue to deal with, and it is difficult to tell a Marine to buck up when he sees important people back home undercutting his primary reason for existing at the moment.

The troops reserve special scorn for John Kerry and his stuck in Iraq comment, which Kerry tried to pass off as a botched joke:

The Kerry comments really cemented his reputation with the troops and upset people more than anything else. It is unnerving to volunteer for service during wartime hoping to be deployed and having to listen to a politician explain how the troops need to come home, especially when we clearly have not finished what we started.

Kerry's comments forced the 2004 Democratic Presidential nominee to withdraw from the 2008 campaign.

John McCain got it right when he was asked by the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal,
what surprised him the most about the behavior House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid with regard to Iraq. McCain answered -- "their lack of patriotism."

So much for the Liberal/Progressive Democrats' delusion that they can support the troops without supporting the mission. The left wing extremists can say what they want about supporting the troops, but trying to ensure American defeat instead of victory is not my version of patriotism.

Bhutto Assassination Renews Concern About Huckabee's Foreign Policy

Republican Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee's first reaction to the assassination of Benazir Bhutto was a diplomatic blunder. Huckabee expressed "our sincere concern and apologies for what has happened in Pakistan." After criticism, Huckabee's campaign said he meant to say "sympathies" not "apologies." In the same statement, Huckabee revealed that he was unaware that martial law was lifted in Pakistan about two weeks ago.

Huckabee is not any better at geography than he is with diplomacy:

And in a morning TV appearance, Huckabee said Bhutto's slaying brings "a new level of instability to the Middle East, and particularly to Pakistan."

Pakistan is in South Asia.

As if those gaffes weren't bad enough, Huckabee decided to tie Bhutto's assassination to illegal immigration in the U.S.:

On Thursday night he told reporters in Orlando, Fla.: “We ought to have an immediate, very clear monitoring of our borders and particularly to make sure if there’s any unusual activity of Pakistanis coming into the country.”

On Friday, in Pella, Iowa, he expanded on those remarks.

“When I say single them out I am making the observation that we have more Pakistani illegals coming across our border than all other nationalities except those immediately south of the border,” he told reporters in Pella. “And in light of what is happening in Pakistan it ought to give us pause as to why are so many illegals coming across these borders.”

[. . .]

Asked how a border fence would help keep out Pakistani immigrants, Mr. Huckabee argued that airplane security was already strong, but that security at the southern United States border was dangerously weak.

“The fact is that the immigration issue is not so much about people coming to pick lettuce or make beds, it’s about someone coming with a shoulder-fired missile,” he said.

The Associated Press reports that many more illegal immigrants living in the United States are from India, Korea, China and Vietnam than Pakistan:

Homeland Security officials say there are more people in the U.S. illegally from the Caribbean, China and Canada than from Pakistan. Officials deported 435 Pakistanis in the 2007 fiscal year, which ran from Oct. 1, 2006 to Sept. 30, 2007, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement statistics. During this time, 766 people from China were deported, as were 521 from the Philippines.

[. . .]

Homeland Security does not publicize the number of people from each country who are caught trying to enter illegally or are turned away at legal border crossings, said Customs and Border Protection spokesman Bill Anthony. But without providing specific details — because they are considered sensitive for law enforcement — Anthony said Pakistanis do not top the list after Latin American countries.

In fiscal 2007, about 600 Pakistanis were turned away at the border or arrested in between entry points.

A senior aide to Mike Huckabee admitted Friday that the former Arkansas governor had "no foreign policy credentials:"



This isn't the first time Huckabee has been caught unprepared on foreign policy/national security matters. Early this month, after the release of a National Intelligence Estimate concluding that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003, Huckabee told journalists that he wasn't aware of the report, even though it had been widely reported in the news for more than 30 hours.

After the NIE gaffe we witnessed Huckabee do a Kerry on Cuba. Then there was the brouhaha over Huckabee's infamous "bunker mentality" quote, which earned him a rebuke from Bob Dole.

Huckabee is not ready for prime time when it comes to foreign affairs and national security. That's not acceptable with the nation at war.

Thanks to Justin Higgins at Stop The ACLU for the video.

McCain Explains His Rising Popularity

In an appearance on Fox News' "O'Reilly Factor," John McCain offered a simple explanation for his campaign's resurgence: "We tell the truth:"



I strongly disagree with McCain on a number of issues, such as the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform, the twice failed McCain-Kennedy immigration reform, and McCain's failure to support President Bush's tax cuts. Nevertheless, I do admire the fact that he stands behind his convictions. What is more important, as a security voter, I appreciate McCain's steadfast support for the war.

Don't Confuse Our Democracy With Weakness

Rudy Giuliani has released a powerful new ad entitled “Freedom.”
In the ad, Giuliani discusses the strength of America and references Sept. 11, 2001:

"The Islamic terrorists would make a terrible mistake if they confuse our democracy for weakness," Giuliani says, "But when you come and try to take away from us our freedom, when you try to come here and kill our people, we’re one and we’re going to stand up to you and we’re going to prevail."



Giuliani was the first candidate to release a statement on the death of Bhutto.

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a tragic event for Pakistan and for democracy in Pakistan. Her murderers must be brought to justice and Pakistan must continue the path back to democracy and the rule of law. Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere — whether in New York, London, Tel-Aviv or Rawalpindi — is an enemy of freedom. We must redouble our efforts to win the Terrorists’ War on Us.

Giulian's "Freedom" ad was released before the news of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Giuliani The Vampire

Rudy Giuliani isn't done yet. He may down, but if he can keep the money flowing until January 29, when Florida holds its primary, Rudy's late state strategy may still work.

David Saltonstall reports Rudy can afford to lose some ground because of the size leads in large, later-voting states with significant delegate counts:

There are 29 states that hold primaries or caucuses between now and Feb. 5, which combined offer a total 1,313 delegates - or 122 more than a Republican needs to win the nomination.

In the 24 states that have conducted public polling, Giuliani remains ahead in 13 - many of them big, winner-take-all states such as New York, New Jersey and Missouri.

Romney and Huckabee, by contrast, are front-runners in only four states each. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson leads in two, and Arizona Sen. John McCain can claim top billing only in West Virginia, polls show.

The bottom line? If Giuliani wins every state where the most recent polls showed him still ahead, he'll end next month with some 758 delegates.

Using the same standard, Huckabee will end the month with only 170 delegates and Romney with 112, while McCain and Thompson will trail with fewer than 100 each.

On the other hand, no one can predict what will happen following the media frenzy that is sure to follow victories Huckabee, McCain Romney may achieve in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan.

Chris Matthews discusses Giuliani's chances with Charlie Cook in the following video and says that it might be like a vampire awakening.



It is just as likely that the bottom could completely fall out of Giuliani's campaign if Romney wins a come from behind victory over Huckabee in Iowa and then goes on to defeat McCain in New Hampshire.

Huckabee's Overt Religiosity

Suzanne Fields shares some of my concerns about the way Mike Huckabee campaigns for the presidency, but she puts it much more eloquently:

I was thinking about the meaning of symbols this holiday season when controversy exploded over Mike Huckabee's Christmas commercial, with its "floating cross." While many insisted that the symbol was merely an illusion created by crossed lines of a bookshelf, others said the meaning of the cross was in the eye of the beholder. But nothing is ever coincidental in a candidate's campaign commercial. Peggy Noonan of the Wall Street Journal writes that it insulted her intelligence: "He thinks I'm dim. He thinks I will associate my savior with his candidacy. Bleh." For many who aren't Christians, it played as pandering to a constituency and manipulating a religious symbol. Many voters in Iowa are evangelical Christians, the caucuses are only days away and the commercial is regarded as the most memorable so far.

My problem with Mike Huckabees advertising himself as a "Christian leader," making the cross glow as backdrop, is that he's making the religious issue divisive toward all those who are not Christians. It's a division that will linger after the holiday season. The Huckabee rhetoric is especially offensive to Jews, playing to the mentality expressed by Ann Coulter, who describes Jews as needing "to be perfected by becoming Christian." When asked whether "it would be better if we were all Christian," she answered "yes." This is the message of the Gospel -- that everyone must be perfected through Christ's sacrifice on the cross -- but it's a message for the church, not a political campaign. A campaign is not a revival meeting.

[. . .]

No one -- well, not everyone -- objects to faith informing a candidate's politics. It's impossible to separate faith from intellect in the pursuit of public good. But there's more than a suggestion that Mike Huckabee's use of religion could unleash intolerance against those who do not share his faith. He has a lot of good things going for him. He's witty and charming. As one of the Iowa locals told The New York Times: "Huckabee's a moral man. He's a preacher. And he lost a hundred pounds. He's going to do all right in Iowa.

It's no just Huckabee's overt religiosity in his presidential campaign that keeps him from closing the deal. There is also his foreign policy, waffling on immigration, and positions from earlier political campaigns.

Liberal New Hampshire Newspaper Slams Romney

The Concord Monitor, a liberal New Hampshire newspaper, ran an editorial on Sunday headlined "Romney Should Not Be The Next President."

The newspaper, calls Romney "a disquieting figure" who "most surely must be stopped:"

If you followed only his tenure as governor of Massachusetts, you might imagine Romney as a pragmatic moderate with liberal positions on numerous social issues and an ability to work well with Democrats. If you followed only his campaign for president, you'd swear he was a red-meat conservative, pandering to the religious right, whatever the cost. Pay attention to both, and you're left to wonder if there's anything at all at his core.

the Romney Campaign responded to the Monitor anti-endorsement:

The Monitor's editorial board is regarded as a liberal one on many issues, so it is not surprising that they would criticize Governor Romney for his conservative views and platform.

Governor Romney has taken firm positions that are at odds with the board's support for drivers licenses for illegal immigrants, their position against school choice and their advocacy for taking "Under God" out of the Pledge of Allegiance. The governor happens to disagree with the editorial board on all those issues, as do most Republicans in New Hampshire.

The New Hampshire Union Leader, which has endorsed John McCain, joined in the Romney bashing today, saying Romney lacks McCain's conviction:

There is a reason Mitt Romney has not received a single newspaper endorsement in New Hampshire. It's the same reason his poll numbers are dropping. He has not been able to convince the people of this state that he's the conservative he says he is.

[. . .]

Voters can see that John McCain is trustworthy. Mitt Romney has spent a year trying to convince Granite Staters that he is as well. It looks like they aren't buying it. And for good reason.

Romney's metamorphosis on certain issues doesn't bother me as much as it bothers others. I strongly disagree with McCain on a number of issues, such as the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform, the twice failed McCain-Kennedy immigration reform, and McCain's failure to support President Bush's tax cuts, I do admire the fact that he stands behind his convictions. What is More important, as a security voter, I appreciate McCain's steadfast support for the war.

Pulpit vs. Boardroom

The Wall Street Journal's Laura Meckler and Elizabeth Holmes that the Republican presidential race in Iowa has come down to a stark choice:

It's the pulpit vs. the boardroom, poverty vs. privilege, passion vs. preparedness.


Mike Huckabee loves homespun tales and self-deprecating jokes. Mitt Romney basks in PowerPoint slides and statistics. Mr. Huckabee, a firefighter's son, is a Southerner born and bred. Mr. Romney, son of a CEO-turned-governor, roamed from Michigan to Massachusetts to Utah.

They embody two wings of the Republican Party -- social conservatives and economic conservatives -- that sometimes sit uneasily.

Between these two candidates I'll take the competence of Romney over the overt religiosity of Huckabee. Unlike Huckabee, Romney can close a deal.

Huckabee Can't Close The Deal

Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee would seem to be the answer to the prayers of Christian conservatives in Iowa.

Even though the former Baptist minister, is leading in the Republican polls in Iowa, Huckabee can't close the deal:

Perhaps, that's due in part to the negative TV commercials Romney is airing.

[. . .]

Huckabee is spending time responding to criticism from Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who has flooded people's mailboxes, telephones and televisions with negative information about the former Arkansas governor's record on immigration and other issues. Romney has spent millions of dollars pumping up his own profile and organizing supporters.

Those negative "contrast" ads work and are taking a toll.

On the other hand, Huckabee has said a lot of things that give conservatives pause. There is the way Huckabee played the religion card. I think he will “scare the living daylights” out of moderates of both parties. Then there is Huckabee's warm and fuzzy Christmas greeting.

After Romney defeats him in Iowa, the Huckabee campaign will implode.

Text Messaging Politics

Text messages are the latest tool for political campaigns. Texting is the cheapest way to hook supporters:

In the past midterm elections, direct mail cost campaigns on average $67 a vote. Door-to-door precinct walking cost about $30. And cold calling costs about $20 per vote.

But text messaging can cost a campaign as little as $1.50 per vote.

In addition to being more cost effective, text messages may be the best way to reach young voters. As many as a third of the estimated 20 million voters under 30 don't even have a land line.

Watch CBS Mobile News correspondent Cali Carlin's video report:

Hillary's Inexperience

Patrick Healy shreds Hillary's claim that eight Years as president Clinton's wife gives her special experience for the presidency:

But during those two terms in the White House, Mrs. Clinton did not hold a security clearance. She did not attend National Security Council meetings. She was not given a copy of the president’s daily intelligence briefing. She did not assert herself on the crises in Somalia, Haiti and Rwanda.

And during one of President Bill Clinton’s major tests on terrorism, whether to bomb Afghanistan and Sudan in 1998, Mrs. Clinton was barely speaking to her husband, let alone advising him, as the Lewinsky scandal sizzled.

Hillary's high-profile role in the failed health care initiative of the early 1990s is well known, but little is known about her involvement in foreign policy and national security.

Healy interviewed talked with 35 Clinton administration officials and reviewed books about Hillary's White House years concludes Hillary was little more than a sounding board, and learned through osmosis rather than decision-making:

She did not wrestle directly with many of the other challenges the next president will face, including managing a large-scale deployment — or withdrawal — of troops abroad, an overhaul of the intelligence agencies or the effort to halt the spread of nuclear weapons technology. Most of her exposure to the military has come since she left the White House through her seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

[. . .]

Asked to name three major foreign policy decisions where she played a decisive role as first lady, Mrs. Clinton responded in generalities more than specifics, describing her strategic roles on trips to Bosnia, Kosovo, Northern Ireland, India, Africa and Latin America.

Asked to cite a significant foreign policy object lesson from the 1990s, Mrs. Clinton also replied with broad observations. “There are a lot of them,” she said. “The whole unfortunate experience we’ve had with the Bush administration, where they haven’t done what we’ve needed to do to reach out to the rest of the world, reinforces my experience in the 1990s that public diplomacy, showing respect and understanding of people’s different perspectives — it’s more likely to at least create the conditions where we can exercise our values and pursue our interests.”

Hillary wasn't involved in one of Bill Clinton’s hardest moments on national security — the 1998 bombings of the United States Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and subsequently whether to bomb Afghanistan and Sudan. Hillary was barely speaking to Bill at the time. It was right after Bill acknowledged to the public and a grand jury that he had an inappropriate relationship with his intern, Monica Lewinsky:

“It was the height of Monica, and they were barely talking to each other, if at all,” said one senior national security official who spoke with both Clintons during that time.

Other Clinton administration officials, are skeptical that the couple’s conversations and Hilary's 79 trips abroad add up to presidential experience:

She was not independently judging intelligence, for the most part, or mediating the data, egos and agendas of a national security team. And, in the end, she did not feel or process the weight of responsibility.

Susan Rice, a National Security Council senior aide and State Department official under Mr. Clinton who now advises Mr. Obama, said Mrs. Clinton was not involved in “the heavy lifting of foreign policy.” Ms. Rice also took issue with a recent comment by a Clinton campaign official that Mrs. Clinton was “the face of the administration in foreign affairs.”

“Making tough decisions, responding to crises, making the bureaucracy implement decisions that they may not want to implement — that’s the hard part of foreign policy,” Ms. Rice said. “That’s not what Mrs. Clinton was asked or expected to do as first lady.”

Then there is the time in 1999 when Hillary sat silently through an event on the West Bank as the wife of Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat, accused Israel of poisoning Palestinian women and children with toxic gases. Hillary was sharply criticized for not confronting Mrs. Arafat over her remarks and for kissing her goodbye afterward. Hillary later admitted attending the event with Suha Arafat on the West Bank was a mistake.

As I've said before, Hillary is uniquely inexperienced to be president.

Sunday Show Video Roundup (Dec. 23)

This video roundup of sound bites from yesterday's talking head shows sums up recent developments in the presidential campaign.



My RedState colleague, Mark Kilmer provides more detail in his weekly review of the Sunday talk shows.

Getting Paid To Run For President

Michelle Tsai explains that presidential candidates can get paid to run for the presidency:

Can candidates pay themselves a salary from these funds while campaigning?

Yes, in some cases. According to rules from the Federal Election Commission (PDF), candidates who meet certain criteria can receive a salary from their campaign committees. It won't be a raise from their last job, though, since the amount can't exceed either their earnings from the previous year or the minimum annual salary of the office they seek—whichever is less. (In the case of the presidency, the salary is $400,000.) They're paid on a pro-rata basis, so a candidate who drops out of the race after six months can pay himself only half of this annual salary.

Not all candidates can qualify to be paid to run. The FEC bars incumbent officeholders in the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives from drawing salaries as candidates in addition to their in-office salaries. Also, a candidate's salary is not considered a qualified expense for candidates receiving public financing.

According to Tsai, among the current front runners only Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney would qualify to be paid a salary as a presidential candidate. They won't do it. Rudy and Mitt don't need the money. No one needs the criticism that would come with drawing a salary to run. Consider how Alan Keyes, was criticized back in 1992 for paying himself more than $8,000 a month out of campaign contributions for his senate race in Maryland. Then there is the criticism of Huckabee's speaking fees. Maybe Huckabee doesn't a salary either.

Huckabee's Redemption

A week ago, I posted that the mainstream media has targeted Huckabee's faith in redemption.


Today, the Wall Street Journal looks at the role faith in Huckabee's clemencies.

The clemency decisions go to the heart of Mr. Huckabee's message: part Christian moral conservatism, part liberal-leaning social conscience. Little Rock lobbyist J. J. Vigneault, a former political aide to Mr. Huckabee, says of his former boss's faith: "I do think it has the potential to influence everything he does."

[. . .]

Mr. Huckabee plays down the idea that arguments for redemption influenced his clemency decisions. "Everybody in jail will always claim to have a conversion," he says. "You look at institutional records, disciplinaries, recommendations from prosecutors, police, friends, family, whether they have a job."

Huckabee's overly generous use of his clemency powers will come back to haunt him just like statements from his first political campaign. Huckabee should embrace his obvious belief in redemption and the role it played in his clemencies. Downplaying its role comes across as less than honest.

Petraeus Not Interested In Presidency

General David Petraeus is not interested in being president.

Asked on "Fox News Sunday" if he had an interest in running for president, Petraeus invoked the words of General Sherman:

A leading Union general in the war, Sherman said in a telegram to the Republican National Convention in 1884, when he was being urged to run for president, "I will not accept if nominated, and I will not serve if elected," according to "The Yale Book of Quotations."

Here's the video. Petraeus talks about the decline of news coverage about Iraq before he is asked about the presidency.

Obama Takes The Lead And McCain Closes The Gap In New Hampshire

A new Boston Globe Hew Hampshire poll finds Barack Obama now leads Hillary Clinton, 30 percent to 28 percent. In last month's Globe poll Hillary had a 14-point lead.

The Globe poll also found John McCain is still surging in New Hampshire. The resurgent McCain is now within three percent of front-runner Mitt Romney. Last month McCain was in third place behind Romney and Giuliani.

The Globe poll also found wide partisan divide in voter opinions on domestic issues.

The bad news belongs to Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton:

Yet while Romney's support has declined from recent polls, the survey has more ominous signs for Giuliani, who once vied for the lead in New Hampshire.

Giuliani's support has diminished in every category of candidate characteristics - from leadership and experience to electability and judgment.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, despite a surge in polls in Iowa and nationally, has not translated that success to New Hampshire, winning the support of just 10 percent of voters. More than 40 percent of respondents said Huckabee was the leading GOP candidate for whom they were least likely to vote.

[. . .]

Aside from a CNN/WMUR poll conducted by UNH last week, which had Clinton with a 12-point edge, surveys have generally shown Obama closing in.

Once trailing Clinton by more than 20 points, Obama appears to have benefited from voters' increasingly positive perceptions of him. Clinton is still viewed by far as the most experienced Democrat, and her supporters are firmest in their preference. But Obama has cut into her leads in the areas of electability and leadership. Voters indicated they also now believe he possesses the best judgment and is the candidate most likely to bring change.

Hillary needs a plan C.

The survey was conducted from December 16 to December 20, and has a margin of error for each party subsample of plus or minus 4.9 percent. It should also be noted that about 40 percent of likely voters in both parties indicated they are still undecided.

Thompson's Christmas Holiday Message

Fred Thompson's "Christmas Holiday Message," is by far my favorite special holiday message from the presidential contenders:



We can't possible thank the members of our armed forces enough. May God bless and keep them.

Leaving Arizona

Attrition By Enforcement

Illegal Aliens are packing up and leaving Arizona.

Arizona enacted a new law in an attempt to lessen economic incentives for illegal aliens. Under the new law, which takes effect January 1, businesses found to have knowingly hired illegal workers will be subject to sanctions from probation to a 10-day suspension of their business licenses. A second violation would bring permanent revocation of the license.

Arizona employers have started to fire workers who can't prove they are in the country legally. As a result illegal aliens are returning to their home countries or moving other states.

The departure of the illegals from Arizona proves that attrition by enforcement works. When illegal aliens don't have jobs, they don't stick around.

Fred got it right.

Tancredo Endorsed Romney To Stop Hucakbee

Former Republican presidential candidate, Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo, said he withdrew from the presidential campaign because he feared Mike Huckabee might win in Iowa and New Hampshire.

On Fox News Channel's "The Big Story," Tancredo further explained why he endorsed Romney:

I had an interesting and lengthy discussion with him this morning about his plan. I believe it's viable. I believe he'll stick with it, and he's got the best shot.

Tancredo's endorsement will help Romney in overcoming Huckabee, but by how much? The endorsement also makes it more difficult for Thompson to place in the top three in the Iowa caucuses. It may also slow McCain's resurgence by reminding folks of McCain's support for the Senate's failed so-called immigration reform, which many saw as providing "amnesty" for illegal aliens.

Nailing Huckabee To The Cross

Like others, I've written about Mike Huckabee playing the religion card and the fact that I think as a presidential candidate he will “scare the living daylights” out of moderates and independents. I even wrote about Huckabee's warm and fuzzy Christmas greeting.

But no one has nailed Hukabee to the cross like Peggy Noonan:

I didn't see the famous floating cross. What I saw when I watched Mike Huckabee's Christmas commercial was a nice man in a sweater sitting next to a brightly lit tree. He had easy warmth and big brown puppy-dog eyes, and he talked about taking a break from politics to remember the peace and joy of the season. Sounds good to me.

Only on second look did I see the white lines of the warmly lit bookcase, which formed a glowing cross. Someone had bothered to remove the books from that bookcase, or bothered not to put them in. Maybe they would have dulled the lines.

Is there a word for "This is nice" and "This is creepy"? For that is what I felt. This is so sweet-appalling.


I love the cross. The sight of it, the fact of it, saves me, literally and figuratively. But there is a kind of democratic politesse in America, and it has served us well, in which we are happy to profess our faith but don't really hit people over the head with its symbols in an explicitly political setting, such as a campaign commercial, which is what Mr. Huckabee's ad was.

I wound up thinking this: That guy is using the cross so I'll like him. That doesn't tell me what he thinks of Jesus, but it does tell me what he thinks of me. He thinks I'm dim. He thinks I will associate my savior with his candidacy. Bleh.

The ad was shrewd. The caucus is coming, the TV is on, people are home putting up the tree, and the other candidates are all over the tube advancing themselves and attacking someone else. Mr. Huckabee thinks, I'll break through the clutter by being the guy who reminds us of the reason for the season, in a way that helps underscore that I'm the Christian candidate and those other fellas aren't. As a break from the nattering argument, as a message that highlights something bigger than politics, it was refreshing.

Was the cross an accident? Please. It was as accidental as Mr. Huckabee's witty response, when he accused those of questioning the ad of paranoia, was spontaneous. "Actually I will confess this, if you play this spot backwards it says 'Paul is dead, Paul is dead, Paul is dead,' " he said. As Bill Safire used to say of clever moves, "That's good stuff!"

Ken Mehlman, the former Republican chairman, once bragged in my presence that in every ad he did he put in something wrong--something that went too far, something debatable. TV producers, ever hungry for new controversy, would play the commercial over and over as pundits on the panel deliberated over its meaning. This got the commercial played free all over the news.

Ali A. Akbar predicts that Huckabee's downfall will come at the hands of Southern Baptists:

Huckabee is the dream candidate for the democrats and although Novak cites Huckabee’s “surge” as “real” and in the same breath calls Thompson the “X Factor” in Iowa, I don’t believe people will be so easily influenced to vote for Huckabee in the primary.

[. . .]

Expect many Southern Baptists to come out of the wood work. I predicted this over a month ago and wrote about it on the third of this month. We have a tradition of ending our own when it’s time. It is time.

I still think the Huckabee campaign will implode.

Debunking The Man-Made Global Warming "Consensus"

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (minority report), debunks the man-made global warming "consensus" mantra. The report found more than 400 prominent scientists, including several former members of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, disputed man-made global warming claims in 2007:

Over 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries recently voiced significant objections to major aspects of the so-called "consensus" on man-made global warming. These scientists, many of whom are current and former participants in the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), criticized the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore.

[. . .]

Even some in the establishment media now appear to be taking notice of the growing number of skeptical scientists. In October, the Washington Post Staff Writer Juliet Eilperin conceded the obvious, writing that climate skeptics "appear to be expanding rather than shrinking." Many scientists from around the world have dubbed 2007 as the year man-made global warming fears "bite the dust." (LINK) In addition, many scientists who are also progressive environmentalists believe climate fear promotion has "co-opted" the green movement. (LINK)

This blockbuster Senate report lists the scientists by name, country of residence, and academic/institutional affiliation. It also features their own words, biographies, and weblinks to their peer reviewed studies and original source materials as gathered from public statements, various news outlets, and websites in 2007. This new "consensus busters" report is poised to redefine the debate.

Randall Hoven makes the point that the United States is accomplishing a lot more to reduce carbon dioxide emissions due to consumption of fossil fuels than the mainstream media or the rest of the world would have you believe.

The U.S. government lists the carbon dioxide emissions due to consumption of fossil fuels by various countries. Hoven used those statistics, crunched the numbers and discovered a secret - the U.S. is doing more than most nations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions:

If we look at that data and compare 2004 (latest year for which data is available) to 1997 (last year before the Kyoto treaty was signed), we find the following.

* Emissions worldwide increased 18.0%.
* Emissions from countries that signed the treaty increased 21.1%.
* Emissions from non-signers increased 10.0%.
* Emissions from the U.S. increased 6.6%.

In fact, emissions from the U.S. grew slower than those of more than 75% of the countries that signed Kyoto.

Now that China leads the word in carbon dioxide emissions, why is the United States portrayed as the world's evil pariah when it comes to global climate change?

The answer lies in Clintonian politics.

On July 25, 1997, before the Kyoto Protocol was finalized, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed the Byrd-Hagel Resolution, by a margin of 95-0.

The Resolution stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing as well as industrialized nations or "would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States."

One of the cosponsors of the Byrd-Hagel resolution, Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, explained in an interview with PBS that the purpose of the resolution was intended to make it clear that the Senate would not ratify an environmental treaty as unfair to the U.S. as the Kyoto agreement:

PBS: Back in 1997, you were a co-sponsor of a nonbinding resolution in the Senate. Did you mean, then, to kill the Kyoto climate treaty, or did you mean to change it?

HAGEL: Well, if you go back to that time when Sen. [Robert] Byrd [D-W. Va.] and I introduced the Byrd-Hagel Resolution, it was to put the Senate on record as to what kind of environmental treaty the Senate would ratify and what kind of an environmental treaty we would not ratify. It's a very simple, straightforward resolution. It says the Senate will not ratify an environmental treaty ... if it does not include all the nations of the world in some way, and second, if it does economic damage ... to our country. Those are the two guidelines.

I don't think that [Kyoto] was in the interest of our country. I don't think it was in the interest of the world.

It was not set out to specifically kill Kyoto. Most of us knew at the time that Kyoto was headed in a different direction. Some of us worked hard to try to maneuver that ... in a way that we could, in the Senate, come to some resolution where we could support it. But this was, I think, in July of 1997; Kyoto was signed in December of 1997. I was there at Kyoto and recall it rather vividly. And then you might recall that after that protocol was signed by Vice President [Al] Gore, of course then-President Clinton never brought it before the Senate, knowing that he would lose. ...

PBS: Do you think that Clinton should've brought it to Congress? Do you think there should've been a debate?

HAGEL: Well, that was up to the president, but I thought it was a little disingenuous to try to score political points and go sign the treaty and never bring it before the Senate or even fight for it or even push it on us. ...

PBS: Why didn't he do that? Why do you think he didn't come back and make the argument?

HAGEL: Well, I don't know why he didn't come before the Senate to make the argument. I do know that the following year, 1998, Sen. [John] Kerry from Massachusetts attempted to work on some kind of an alternative to Byrd-Hagel that would essentially rescind the Byrd-Hagel Resolution. And I do know that President Clinton worked quietly with a number of Democrats in the Senate to try to enlist their support to find an alternative to Byrd-Hagel.

But there were a number of senior Democrats -- starting with the most senior of the Democrats, Sen. Byrd from West Virginia -- who would not agree to that, as well as others like Sen. [Fritz] Hollings from South Carolina, who was very senior at the time. The president and Sen. Kerry and others just could not find a way to undermine or rescind Byrd-Hagel.

Then-President Clinton knew that he could not bring that treaty before the Senate, because it would suffer a rather humiliating defeat, after we had passed Byrd-Hagel in 1997 with the specific mandates that it addressed. And we had passed it, I believe, with a vote of 95-0.

Out of sync with the rest of the country on global climate change, the Clinton-Gore administration set up an international public opinion ambush for the U.S. and smugly walked the country right into it.

On November 12, 1998, less than four months after the Senate sent then President Clinton the Byrd-Hagle message, Clinton arrogantly had vice president Al Gore symbolically sign the protocol while a Deputy U.S. Ambassador did the official signing at the United Nations.

Even though Clinton caused the Kyoto treaty to be signed on behalf of the United States, Clinton had no intention of seeking ratification:

MARGARET WARNER: But Gore said the White House would not ask the Senate to ratify the agreement as it now stands.

VICE PRESIDENT GORE: As we've said from the very beginning, we will not submit this for ratification until there's meaningful participation by key developing nations.

You can watch Gore deny the Clinton administration intended to even try to ratify the treaty in the following video:



Even though Gore and the mainstream media have tried to convince the world that only a lunatic would dare to question the “consensus” that the global warming debate is “settled,” facts are still stubborn things.


A recent study found art of the scientific consensus on global warming may be flawed:

The researchers compared predictions of 22 widely used climate "models" — elaborate schematics that try to forecast how the global weather system will behave — with actual readings gathered by surface stations, weather balloons and orbiting satellites over the past three decades.

The study, published online this week in the International Journal of Climatology, found that while most of the models predicted that the middle and upper parts of the troposphere —1 to 6 miles above the Earth's surface — would have warmed drastically over the past 30 years, actual observations showed only a little warming, especially over tropical regions.

"Can the models accurately explain the climate from the recent past? It seems that the answer is no," said lead study author David H. Douglass, a physicist specializing in climate at the University of Rochester.

Journalists have warned of climate change for 100 years. The trouble is, no one can decide whether we face global warming or global cooling. Which way will the climate change pendulum swing in 2025?

Cartoon courtesy of Michael Van Winkle.

Tancredo Endorses Romney

As expected, Republican Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo announced today he's ending his presidential campaign. Tancredo threw his support, what little there was, behind Mitt Romney.

Hillary Ambivalence Syndrome Treatment

Hillary Ambivalence Syndrome can be treated with Oxy Clinton



Via Stop Her Now.

Kissinger Endorses McCain

Henry Kissinger, who served as secretary of state under Presidents Ford and Nixon, says Senator McCain is the best person to serve as president at a dangerous time for America and the world:

"I tremendously admire his service to the nation," Mr. Kissinger said. "I believe that he's the best candidate to serve our nation in an extremely difficult and complicated period." He added that he was "doing something that I am not comfortable with" in making an endorsement, but that Mr. McCain and the nation deserved it.

In what may have been a criticism of Mr. Romney, Senator Clinton, Mayor Giuliani, or a number of the candidates running in the 2008 race, Mr. Kissinger stressed the strength and depth of Mr. McCain's commitment to his belief in America and freedom. "This is not a question of a focus group advising what to say on a talk show," he said.

Kissinger also took the opportunity to criticize the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran:

"They had a footnote that said a weapons program is the production of warheads," Mr. Kissinger said. "In fact, there are three elements to a weapons program, the production of fissionable material, the production of missiles, and the production of warheads. …We cannot dismiss it by defining it into one category, and this is a problem that will be with us for the rest of this administration and into the beginning of the next administration."

Kissinger had an important article in the Washington Post about misreading the Iran report and the recent tendency of the intelligence community to turn itself into a kind of check on the executive branch.

Related:
Changing Our View Of Iran
Iran Strengthened By NIE

Tancredo Bails

The Associated Press reports Republican Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo, plans to announce he is abandoning his presidential campaign:

The five-term Colorado congressman planned to make the announcement at a news conference in Des Moines, Iowa, on Thursday, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak for Tancredo or his campaign.

Tancredo's campaign would only say he planned a "major announcement" Thursday.

Tancredo announced in October that he would not seek a sixth term in Congress, but he may run for the Senate next year when Republican Wayne Allard retires.

Obama Does Better Than Hillary Against Republicans

Gallup's hypothetical 2008 general election trial-heat matchups between Democratic and Republican presidential candidates found Obama does better than Hillary Clinton against the Republican candidates:

The Dec. 14-16 USA Today/Gallup poll pitted Clinton and Obama against Giuliani, Romney, and Huckabee -- yielding six separate matchups (all data reported here are among registered voters).


[. . .]

Obama does as well as or better than Clinton against the three Republican candidates. These results are of interest against a backdrop that shows that an increasing number of Democrats are interested in nominating a candidate who has the best chance of beating the Republican in the November 2008 election.

Polls such as this are little more than interesting discussion material for political junkies. National polls aren't worth much in the presidential campaign, which consists of 50 separate races. Opinion surveys polling on registered voters should always be taken with a bigger grain of salt than surveys of likely voters.

Lieberman On "Hardball"

Connecticut's Independent Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman discusses his endorsement of John McCain on "Hardball" (December 17, 2007).