Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Obama Loses Momentum

A new Quinnipiac University poll finds Hillary still holds a 6% lead over Obama in Pennsylvania, 50% to 44%. That is the same result Quinnipiac found last week.

Obama has lost his momentum. There doesn't seem to be any other impact from Obama's San Francisco remarks demeaning small town America:

"[T]hey cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
The new Quinnipiac poll also highlights the Democrat's deserter problem:
26 percent of Clinton supporters would switch to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican, in November if Obama were the Democratic nominee. Nineteen percent of Obama backers would switch to McCain if Clinton were the Democratic nominee.
This is the fifth poll I've seen in the last three weeks documenting the Democrats' deserters problem.

Gallup :
But only 59% of Democratic voters who support Clinton say they would vote for Obama against McCain, while 28% say they would vote for the Republican McCain.

[. . .]

Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama for the party's nomination would vote for Clinton against McCain, while 19% would desert and vote for the Republican.
About a quarter of Obama supporters say they'll vote for McCain if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. About a third of Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain if it's Obama.
Rasmussen Reports:
Only 61% of Hillary supporters say they are likely to vote for Obama against John McCain. On the other hand, if Hillary is nominated, only 67% of Obama supporters are likely to vote for her.
American Research Group:
10% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
I take the ARG poll with a bigger grain of salt because it found Hillary had a 20% lead, 57% TO 37%. Only a week before, ARG found the Democrats tied at 45%. Still, deserters appear to be a serious problem for the Democrats in November.

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