Saturday, April 12, 2008

Hillary Still Leads In Pennsylvania

A new Temple University poll finds Hillary continues to lead Obama in Pennsylvania, 44% to 35% percent among Pennsylvanians likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. That comfortable margin shrinks when undecided voters are included:

Nineteen percent remain undecided or refuse to express a preference, but that group leans toward Obama. Adding in the undecided voters who lean to one candidate or the other shrinks Clinton’s lead to 47 – 41 percent.
The Temple poll also found "stark demographic differences:"
• 83 percent of blacks favor Obama, compared to 31 percent of whites
• 79 percent under the age of 30 favor Obama, compared to 28 percent over 60 years old
• 55 percent of women favor Clinton, compared to 32 percent of men
A recent AP-Ipsos poll found Obama losing ground among some of those groups:
Against McCain, Obama lost ground among women — from 57 percent in February to 47 percent in April. Obama dropped 12 points among women under 45, 14 points among suburban women and 15 points among married women.

He also lost nine points or more among voters under 35, high-income households, whites, Catholics, independents, Southerners, people living in the Northeast and those with a high school education or less.
A new Zogby poll finds Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania even smaller 47% to 43%. Hillary does better in western Pennsylvania, around Pittsburgh, and in the central part of the state. Obama is doing well in eastern Pennsylvania, near Philadelphia.

Michael G. Hagen, director of Temple’s Institute for Public Affairs, says the Pennsylvania contest could depend on turnout:
The race remains close enough that turnout will be critical, especially in the all-important allocation of convention delegates. The two sides bring different assets to the turnout contest. The Clinton campaign has the backing of more of Pennsylvania’s top elected officials, but the Obama campaign will have more money to spend to get out the vote.
Pennsylvania is one of those states Hillary has to win. Obama has a chance to deny her that victory and thereby the nomination, if he didn't completely blow it with his insult to small-town America.

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