Saturday, January 19, 2008

South Carolina Republican Primary Prediction

In South Carolina we have another very close race among the Republican candidates.

Rasmussen Reports finds John McCain and Mike Huckabee tied. But Rasmussen also finds a lot of uncertainty:

Perhaps the most significant finding of the survey was that, as of Wednesday night, 41% of voters indicated that they might change their mind. That includes 7% who have not decided on anyone, 10% who said there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and another 24% who said they could change their mind. Such uncertainty just three days before an election is extraordinary.
Two other polls find McCain with a narrow lead.

A new McClatchy-MSNBC poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research has McCain leading with 27%, followed by Huckabee, 25%; Mitt Romney, 16%; Fred Thompson, 13%; Ron Paul, 6%; and Rudy Giuliani, 5%.

A new Zogby International poll has McCain leading with 27%, followed by Huckabee, 26%; Romney, 15%; Thompson, 12%; Paul, 4%; and Giuliani, 3%. The Zogby and Rasmussen polls show McCain slipping and Huckabee rising.

McCain is thought to lead among South Carolina's large veteran population, while Huckabee is favored by evangelical voters. Then there is the weather. Up to 3 inches of snow is forecast in the portions of the state and heavy rain is expected throughout the rest of the state.

My guess is that Huckabee's supporters are more passionate than McCain, and will carry Huckabee to victory.

Huckabee - 30%
McCain - 29%
Romney - 17%
Thompson -13%
Giuliani - 5%
Paul - 5%
Hunter - 1%

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