Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Hillary Reaches Fifty

The Harris Poll finds 50 percent of U.S. adults would not vote for Hillary if she is the Democratic candidate for President. Even 21 percent of Democrats would not vote for her.

The New York Senator fares little better with independents - 48 percent say they would not vote for her, while 37 percent say they would.

Dislike of Hillary is personal. Those over 62 are more likely to dislike Hillary. Over half (54%) dislike her track record as a U.S. Senator and 60 percent feel the same about her track record as First Lady. Sixty-five percent of this group say they dislike Hillary's personal opinions and 61 percent dislike her as a person. More than half, 52 percent of respondents agree that Hillary does not appear to connect with people on a personal level, and this number is even higher among married women (53%), men (56%), those over 62 (68%), and Republicans (73%).

Things that happened during the Clinton presidency still hurt the Senator:

A plurality (45%) agrees that it is difficult to trust her because of Whitewater and other scandals in the Clinton White House, while 42 percent disagree. Similar numbers (44%) agree that her handling of health care in the White House raises questions about her ability and 34 percent disagree.
I'm sure there are many reasons not to put too much stock in these findings, but the last time I saw a Rasmussen Reports "Hillary Meter" only 39 percent said they would definitely vote against Senator Clinton if she is on the Presidential ballot in 2008. I'm also sure it's not wise of me to compare two different online polls from two different companies. Nevertheless, it does seem like quite an achievement when half of voting-age Americans say they are unwilling to vote for the current Democratic front runner.


Randall Ryan said...

Even "only 39%" is a death sentence. That essentially means that she would need to reap 83.6% of the remaining voters to get 51% of the vote. That's daunting.

I continue to say that she's unelectable, and if the Democrats want to take an imminentely winnable race the need to take the ABC mantra (Anybody But Bush) and change it to ABH. Otherwise, they will screw it up again.

California Yankee said...

Randall, I agree that the Harris numbers don't look promising, but don't underestimate Hillary. Her campaign organization is truly a juggernaut and has been for years. It's a long time before the first votes will be cast in this election. Much will happen between now and the voting.

Randall Ryan said...

Yes, she (and more appropriately her husband) and her team can mint money; yes, campaigns are often more about money; yes, there is a lot of time. However, the country has had 15 years to form their opinion of HRC, and no amount of money or time is going to appreciably change their perception.

Her negatives are greater now than Bush's were in 2004. She might take the nomination, but I simply see no way she wins a general election.