An August survey conducted by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake finds Hillary and Obama trailing former New York mayor Giuliani in the 31 Democratic-held House districts regarded as most imperiled in 2008:
Giuliani takes 49 percent to Clinton's 39 percent, while the former mayor's lead over Obama is far smaller, 41 percent to 40 percent. "Despite Obama's relative advantage over Clinton, both candidates are significantly underperforming against the generic Democratic edge in the presidential and even against party identification," Lake and Gotoff wrote.The survey shows that those Democratic lawmakers' reelection chances are hurt if the Democratic nominee is Hillary or Obama:
While the average lead of Democratic House members stands at 19 percentage points in the 31 vulnerable districts -- all but two of which are part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's incumbent-protection program known as Frontline -- that number sinks considerably when the lawmakers are linked to either front-runner.So much for the conventional wisdom that Democratic voters are excited about Hillary or Obama becoming the Democratic presidential nominee and that the Republicans cannot regain control of the House.
[. . .]
Whether the question named Clinton or Obama, the Democratic incumbent's lead shrank to an average of six points: 47 percent to 41 percent with Clinton leading the ticket, 44 percent to 38 percent with Obama as the nominee.