South Carolina Republican Primary Prediction

In South Carolina we have another very close race among the Republican candidates.

Rasmussen Reports finds John McCain and Mike Huckabee tied. But Rasmussen also finds a lot of uncertainty:

Perhaps the most significant finding of the survey was that, as of Wednesday night, 41% of voters indicated that they might change their mind. That includes 7% who have not decided on anyone, 10% who said there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and another 24% who said they could change their mind. Such uncertainty just three days before an election is extraordinary.

Two other polls find McCain with a narrow lead.

A new McClatchy-MSNBC poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research has McCain leading with 27%, followed by Huckabee, 25%; Mitt Romney, 16%; Fred Thompson, 13%; Ron Paul, 6%; and Rudy Giuliani, 5%.

A new Zogby International poll has McCain leading with 27%, followed by Huckabee, 26%; Romney, 15%; Thompson, 12%; Paul, 4%; and Giuliani, 3%. The Zogby and Rasmussen polls show McCain slipping and Huckabee rising.

McCain is thought to lead among South Carolina's large veteran population, while Huckabee is favored by evangelical voters. Then there is the weather. Up to 3 inches of snow is forecast in the portions of the state and heavy rain is expected throughout the rest of the state.

My guess is that Huckabee's supporters are more passionate than McCain, and will carry Huckabee to victory.

Huckabee - 30%
McCain - 29%
Romney - 17%
Thompson -13%
Giuliani - 5%
Paul - 5%
Hunter - 1%

Luntz's Focus Group Likes Fred

Luntz's Focus Group says Fred Thompson won the Republican debate in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.



I guess the focus group liked Fred calling Huckabee on his liberal economic foreign policies. I know I did.

Thompson Vs. Huckabee

Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee went at it over Huckabee's record as governor of Arkansas during the Republican debate in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Answering a question about the future of the Reagan Coalition, Thompson said, "This is a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party and its future:"

He said that Mr. Huckabee, a Baptist minister, "would be a Christian leader, but he would bring about liberal economic policies and liberal foreign policies." Mr. Thompson then listed Mr. Huckabee's record on the prison at Guantanamo Bay, education, taxes, foreign policy and federalism, a record that he charged was at odds with Mr. Reagan's conservatism. "That's not the model of the Reagan Coalition, that's the model of the Democratic Party," Mr. Thompson said to applause.

Huckabee defended his record, saying he "stayed faithful with the things Ronald Reagan was faithful to."Watch the video:



Score: Thompson 1 - Huckabee 0.

Rudy Discusses Polls And Campaign Strategy With Russert

Appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press," Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani was engaged in a brawl with host, Tim Russert. The show started off with a relatively friendly discussion about recent polls and Rudy's campaign strategy:

MR. RUSSERT: Let’s go right to it. Mason-Dixon, MSNBC have done some polling. First the Democrats, just to share with our viewers and give you a sense of that race. Here’s Iowa: Hillary Clinton, 27; Obama is 25; Edwards, 21--three-way dead race. New Hampshire, Clinton ahead by just three. South Carolina, Clinton over Obama by three. And the Nevada caucus, which is September 19th—November—excuse me, January 19th, Clinton, 34; Obama, 26.

Now the Republicans. Here they are, Iowa: Huckabee, 32; Romney, 20; Thompson, 11; McCain, 7; Giuliani, 5. Fifth place, is that a problem?

MR. GIULIANI: I wish you had shown Florida. It would—it would have—it would have looked better, where we have an 18-point lead. There are, there are some polls we’re behind, some where we’re ahead. I think there are 21, 22, 23 primaries and caucuses going up to February 5th. I think we’re ahead in 16, 18 of them. I don’t expect to win all of them. We’re going to work real hard in every single one of them, maybe surprise some people in Iowa, maybe in New Hampshire, work real hard there. South Carolina, Michigan, Nevada. Then we get to Florida, where I think the latest poll was 16 to 18-point lead, and we’ve had a lead there of that magnitude pretty much throughout. Every once in a while it slipped back to like seven or eight.

MR. RUSSERT: But in fifth place in Iowa, would it be better for you if Huckabee beat Romney in Iowa? Wouldn’t that be helpful?

MR. GIULIANI: The best thing is if you win. That’s the very best thing.

MR. RUSSERT: But that...

MR. GIULIANI: Who knows. Who knows. I—you’ve been through so many of these, Tim. You know that no candidate has won all the primaries in a, in a hotly contested one. This is one in which that’s not very conceivable, given all the good candidates there are. So if we can win a couple at the beginning, you know; win Florida for sure. We go into February 5th, then, ahead in New York, Illinois, California, New Jersey, Connecticut. We’re actually ahead right now, I believe, in Missouri. Kit Bond’s endorsement probably helped there more than me. But the reality is we’ve got, we’ve got a lead probably in, like, 15 of the 20 on February 5th, Florida, and we’re competitive. But we’ve got a long way to go in some of them. So we’re going to see. We’re going to work real hard.

MR. RUSSERT: Here’s New Hampshire: Romney’s ahead of—as you can see, 25; Giuliani, 17; McCain, 16. South Carolina: Huckabee is ahead 20; Giuliani, 17; Romney, 15. And Nevada, we’ll show you Nevada: Giuliani is ahead 25, 20, 17.

MR. GIULIANI: Now do Florida. Do Florida.

MR. RUSSERT: We, we haven’t done Florida. But we’ll, we’ll get there eventually.

MR. GIULIANI: No, but you look, you look at South Carolina, that’s, that’s a good place to be for someone who has, you know, campaigned all over the country. We haven’t concentrated on any one state. We’ve kind of had a proportionate campaign all over. Some of the candidates have concentrated on a state. We got a real good organization in South Carolina. That’s a very competitive place to be.

MR. RUSSERT: But if you lose...

MR. GIULIANI: New Hampshire.

MR. RUSSERT: ...Iowa, if you lose Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina, you’re still in?

MR. GIULIANI: I’m, I’m, I’m in, all right? The idea is you want to win the first one. If you lose the first one, you want to win the second one. If you lose the second one, you want to win the third one. And you want to be there for, you know, Florida, at the end of the month, big state. And you want to be there, certainly, for February 5th when we’re going to have more primaries on one day than we’ve ever had in our history. And some real big states, you know, New York, Illinois, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware.

MR. RUSSERT: Let me turn to some important issues first.

MR. GIULIANI: Oh, and Michigan is in there, too. We shouldn’t miss Michigan is in there in January.

You can watch the discussion in the following video:




Rudy has a point. The race for the presidential campaign is wide open and theoretically Rudy can wait until Florida for his first win. But the dynamics and the polls will change as voters start to pick their favorites in the caucuses and primaries. The winners always get a big boost from the ensuing press coverage. Forida may be too long to wait.

Colbert Beats Richardson

Stephen Colbert has announced plans to run in both the Democratic and Republican South Carolina Presidential primaries.

A new Public Opinion Strategies poll finds Presidential wannabe, Stephen Colbert, takes 2.3 percent of the vote. That's better than Democratic candidates Governor Bill Richardson (2.1 percent), Representative Dennis Kucinich (2.1 percent) and former Senator Mike Gravel (less than 1 percent).

Richardson, Kucinich and Gravel should take the hint. It's long past time for them to withdraw.

Romney Organizes South Carolina

Massachusetts Republican Governor Mitt Romney has assembled an impressive organization in South Carolina:

Romney's paid staffers in the Palmetto State include powerful Republican operatives Warren Tompkins and George Ramsey, former Republican Governors Association aide Nick Breeding and Greenville fundraising consultant Leslie Gaines.

He also has several others on his side, including Terry Sullivan, who served as U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint's campaign manager in 2004.Tompkins, Ramsey and Sullivan alone have a formidable resume in Republican politics, and all of them supported President George W. Bush's efforts here in 2000.

According to the Herald-Journal, Tompkins is having as much fun as he did working managing Ronald Reagan's 1980 South Carolina campaign. Tompkins says Romney's faith will help in South Carolina, despite theological differences.

The bigger hurdle for Romney will be to convince RedStaters that he is conservative, even though he is in charge of the heavily Democratic, liberal, and tax laden Massachusetts. If McCain and Giuliani split the more moderate Republicans, Romney may have his way with more conservative Republicans.