Hillary Gets Her Double Digits

Hillary defeated Obama in the Pennsylvania primary by double digits, 55% to 45%.

In her victory celebration, Hillary made it clear that, with her Pennsylvania victory, the brawl between her and Obama will continue:

“Some people counted me out and said to drop out, but the American people don’t quit, and they deserve a president who doesn’t quit either,” Mrs. Clinton said to fervent cheers and applause at her victory party... ."

The Pennsylvania primary seems to have failed to settle anything:

Both candidates performed strongly among the same constituencies that have supported them in other primary states. Mr. Obama was backed overwhelmingly by black voters and also scored well among voters younger than 45 and college graduates, the results show.

Once again Obama was unable to close the deal. Obama, as in other primaries, appeared to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. Even with Obama's huge money advantage, record breaking advertising, and the mainstream media admittedly suffering from Obamamania, he continues to fail to land a knock out blow. One has to ask why Obama can't win the big ones.

Tim Russert discusses what he thinks might happen next in the following video:





The spin doctors will be very busy trying to convince all of us, and more important, the Democrat's superdelegates why Hillary or Obama is entitled to the nomination. But as the battle for the Democratic nomination moves to Indiana and North Carolina, Hillary's goal still seems out of reach. Hillary's campaign is out out money and some party officials would like to see her quit. As Mark Z. Barabak and Noam N. Levey write in the Los Angeles Times, it still comes down to the math:

Mathematically, with just nine contests left, it appears virtually impossible for Clinton to overtake Obama in the popular vote and among pledged delegates -- those chosen in primaries and caucuses. Her best hope was to instill enough doubts about Obama to persuade the 300 or so uncommitted superdelegates to rally to her side.

Hillary will battle on as long as she can find the resources to do so. The bottom line here is that the big winner of the Pennsylvania primary is Senator McCain. He is out running a positive and optimistic campaign, as poll after poll finds that no matter which one of the Democrats survives to challenge him in November, theat Democrat will have a serious deserter problem.

Focus Group: Hillary Wins The Debate

A focus group for Philadelphia's WPVI TV-6, by a two to one margin, says that Hillary Clinton won the Democrats' debate:



I don't think Hillary won. She never seemed to look into the correct camera making her appear shifty and insincere in her responses.

A smaller sample for sure, but at Right Side Politics, readers think Obama won.

The moderators threw nothing but "gotcha" questions at the Hillary and Obama for first half of the debate. Come November, with all that video, the real winner of this debate will be John McCain.

Watch Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell tell a Philadelphia's ABC affiliate, WPVI-6l television reporter that he was disappointed in the ABC debate because of all the "gotcha" questions:

The Best Ideas From Both Parties

Senator McCain's campaign has launched his "first general election ads in Ohio and Pennsylvania."

Titled "Ignite," the fast moving 30 second spot appeals to swing voters promising the best from both parties:

Announcer: As President, John McCain will take the best ideas from both parties to spur innovation, invest in people and create jobs.

Taxes — simpler, fairer. Energy — cleaner, cheaper. Health care — portable and affordable. Workers retrained, mortgage debt restructured, education transformed. Initiatives that will unite us and ignite our economy.

Big ideas for serious problems. John McCain.

Another well-done effort from McCain's video folks. The quick images of tax forms, wind turbines, medical professionals and office workers illustrate the script. Homes and children roll across the screen to make McCain's point.

Since McCain won the Republican nomination, his campaign has cranked out one terrific video after another. My favorites are Tolerance And Respect and Courageous Service, but there has been a whole series of great McCain videos.

Obama Loses Momentum

A new Quinnipiac University poll finds Hillary still holds a 6% lead over Obama in Pennsylvania, 50% to 44%. That is the same result Quinnipiac found last week.

Obama has lost his momentum. There doesn't seem to be any other impact from Obama's San Francisco remarks demeaning small town America:

"[T]hey cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

The new Quinnipiac poll also highlights the Democrat's deserter problem:

26 percent of Clinton supporters would switch to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican, in November if Obama were the Democratic nominee. Nineteen percent of Obama backers would switch to McCain if Clinton were the Democratic nominee.

This is the fifth poll I've seen in the last three weeks documenting the Democrats' deserters problem.

Gallup :

But only 59% of Democratic voters who support Clinton say they would vote for Obama against McCain, while 28% say they would vote for the Republican McCain.

[. . .]

Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama for the party's nomination would vote for Clinton against McCain, while 19% would desert and vote for the Republican.

AP-Ipsos:

About a quarter of Obama supporters say they'll vote for McCain if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. About a third of Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain if it's Obama.

Rasmussen Reports:

Only 61% of Hillary supporters say they are likely to vote for Obama against John McCain. On the other hand, if Hillary is nominated, only 67% of Obama supporters are likely to vote for her.

American Research Group:

10% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

I take the ARG poll with a bigger grain of salt because it found Hillary had a 20% lead, 57% TO 37%. Only a week before, ARG found the Democrats tied at 45%. Still, deserters appear to be a serious problem for the Democrats in November.

Hillary Still Leads In Pennsylvania

A new Temple University poll finds Hillary continues to lead Obama in Pennsylvania, 44% to 35% percent among Pennsylvanians likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. That comfortable margin shrinks when undecided voters are included:

Nineteen percent remain undecided or refuse to express a preference, but that group leans toward Obama. Adding in the undecided voters who lean to one candidate or the other shrinks Clinton’s lead to 47 – 41 percent.

The Temple poll also found "stark demographic differences:"

• 83 percent of blacks favor Obama, compared to 31 percent of whites
• 79 percent under the age of 30 favor Obama, compared to 28 percent over 60 years old
• 55 percent of women favor Clinton, compared to 32 percent of men

A recent AP-Ipsos poll found Obama losing ground among some of those groups:

Against McCain, Obama lost ground among women — from 57 percent in February to 47 percent in April. Obama dropped 12 points among women under 45, 14 points among suburban women and 15 points among married women.

He also lost nine points or more among voters under 35, high-income households, whites, Catholics, independents, Southerners, people living in the Northeast and those with a high school education or less.

A new Zogby poll finds Hillary's lead in Pennsylvania even smaller 47% to 43%. Hillary does better in western Pennsylvania, around Pittsburgh, and in the central part of the state. Obama is doing well in eastern Pennsylvania, near Philadelphia.

Michael G. Hagen, director of Temple’s Institute for Public Affairs, says the Pennsylvania contest could depend on turnout:

The race remains close enough that turnout will be critical, especially in the all-important allocation of convention delegates. The two sides bring different assets to the turnout contest. The Clinton campaign has the backing of more of Pennsylvania’s top elected officials, but the Obama campaign will have more money to spend to get out the vote.

Pennsylvania is one of those states Hillary has to win. Obama has a chance to deny her that victory and thereby the nomination, if he didn't completely blow it with his insult to small-town America.