Saturday, August 16, 2008

Obama's Bad Poll Day

In the New Republic, Nate Silver writes that three new polls released on Thursday "show significant movement toward John McCain:"

In Washington, SurveyUSA has John McCain trailing by 7 points. This hardly moves Washington into competitive territory, however, SurveyUSA had polled Washington no fewer than nine times since Super Tuesday, and had shown Obama ahead an average of 13.4 points, including 16 points in a survey released in mid-July.

A similar pattern manifests itself in Minnesota, where Rasmussen has Barack Obama's lead eroding to 4 points; Obama had held a 13-point lead last month. And in the critical swing state of Colorado, Rasmussen has John McCain edging into a 1-point lead; last month, it had been Obama by 3.

Silver notes McCain is gaining ground among Independents and Republicans, but doesn't understand what is causing the shift toward McCain. The explanation is simple. Russia has again revealed its belligerent tendencies with its naked and brutal aggression against Georgia. McCain has been right about Russia for a long time and won the Georgian 3:00 phone call moment.

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